Poland: Economy decoupled from the eurozone crisis

The general deterioration of conditions in the euro area (even in Germany) in the second half of 2011 has already affected the performance and prospects in most new member states. But so far Poland has kept its growth momentum. Growth in 2012 is likely to be satisfactory (though of course lower than in 2011) even if the euro area stagnates. The domestic economy is in no need for any meaningful deleveraging while fiscal and monetary policies will quite certainly not chase any overambitious goals. As in 2009 the Polish economy will benefit from its size, versatility and relative closedness. But the exchange rate volatility will continue to be a source of surprises which can be either pleasant or unpleasant.