Policy analysis matrices: beyond simple sensitivity analysis

As an analytical methodology, the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) can be used to provide indicators of the incentives faced by producers in a given policy and institutional environment. However, the methodology suffers from the limitation that the analyst is unable to attach any level of confidence to the results, other than that generated through sensitivity analysis. In this paper the technique of bootstrapping is introduced as a general method for assessing the degree of uncertainty surrounding indicators derived from PAMs. The example of wheat production in Slovakia is used to demonstrate the usefulness of the additional information generated by this approach. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.