Population exposure and migrations linked to climate change in Africa : evidence from the recent past and scenarios for the future

Many public debates and political discourses in the recent years have highlighted the impact of climate change on migration. These debates are still influenced by early estimates, which predicted that millions of people would be fleeing climate change effects. Part of this alarmist narrative is linked to a lack of definition of climate migrants which also hinders the design of policies to tackle the issue. Over the years, EU policy has evolved from ad hoc initiatives and definitions of migration and climate change as threat multipliers towards a more holistic, balanced and integrated approach. This reflects the fact that climate change impacts stretch across policy areas, institutional boundaries and geographic borders and therefore cannot be addressed in isolation. The main purpose of this report is to contribute to the ongoing integration of EU policies on climate change, adaptation and migration. The specific objectives are: to identify associations between climate change and displacement in Africa, in recent decades; to provide spatially explicit estimates of populations exposed and vulnerable to climate change impacts up to 2070 for several scenarios of climate change and socio-economic development, and to discuss the implications for climate-driven migration in Africa. For the part dealing with the future, the report quantifies the size of population that could be exposed and vulnerable to climate change impacts on agricultural productivity. For the purpose of this study, vulnerable populations are defined as those living in rural areas, with low education and in poverty. For the past, the report tries to identify associations between displacement (intended as the difference between immigration and emigration from a certain area independently of the origin and destination of the flows) and a series of climate change variables. These macro analyses are complemented by case studies on the relation with urbanisation in Egypt, with drought in the Sahel regions and with conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan. Finally, the report considers individual perspectives of African citizens using survey data on their perceptions about climate change and the desire to migrate.