Post Keynesian versus Neoclassical Explanations of Exchange Rate Movements: A Short Look at the Long Run

In this paper, a series of empirical tests are conducted comparing the explanatory power of the neoclassical approach (in particular, purchasing power parity and the monetary model) with that of a long-run exchange rate model based on Post Keynesian premises (the tests use annual data for the dollar-deutsche mark and the dollar-yen from 1975 through 1998). It is shown that, despite the shift in time horizon and the biasing of the tests in favor of the neoclassical approach, the Post Keynesian approach still shows a much tighter fit to the historical facts.