Posterior and Predictive Densities for Simultaneous Equation Models

I. The Simultaneous Equation Model -- I.1 The statistical model ; Notations -- I.2 The identification problem -- I.3 Some previous contributions -- I.4 Review of the contents -- I.5 Technical abstract -- II. Full Information Analysis of the Two-equation Model -- II.1 Notations -- II.2 The Drèze and Morales’ approach -- II.3 An alternative approach : structural analysis -- II.4 Reduced form analysis and prediction -- II.5 Some additional remarks -- III. Limited Information Analysis of the Simultaneous Equation Model -- III.1 Some posterior joint conditional densities on ? : non-informative prior density -- III.2 Posterior moments of the reduced form parameters : limited information prior density -- III.3. A “Limited information” prediction -- Appendix I : The matrix-t density -- Appendix II : The row-diagonal conditional matricvariate-t density -- Appendix III : The technicalities of Chapter II -- Appendix IV : Hypergeometric series ; Their computations -- Appendix V : The programs of Chapter II -- Appendix VI : An integral identity (Dickey) -- IV. Empirical Illustration : The Belgian Beef Market -- IV.1 Morales’ model -- IV.2 The information content of the identifying restrictions -- IV.3 Informative approach : full information analysis -- IV.4 Informative approach : limited information analysis -- V. Conclusions -- Appendix VII : The data -- Appendix VIII : The results -- References.