Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle
Kai Carstensen, Markus Heinrich, Magnus Reif, Maik H. Wolters
| Year of publication: |
2020
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|---|---|
| Authors: | Carstensen, Kai ; Heinrich, Markus ; Reif, Magnus ; Wolters, Maik H. |
| Published in: |
International journal of forecasting. - Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, ISSN 0169-2070, ZDB-ID 283943-X. - Vol. 36.2020, 3, p. 829-850
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| Subject: | Markov-switching dynamic factor model | Great Recession | Turning points | GDP nowcasting | GDP forecasting | Konjunktur | Business cycle | Prognoseverfahren | Forecasting model | Markov-Kette | Markov chain | Frühindikator | Leading indicator | Deutschland | Germany | Bruttoinlandsprodukt | Gross domestic product | Faktorenanalyse | Factor analysis | Wirtschaftsprognose | Economic forecast | Nationaleinkommen | National income | Schätzung | Estimation | Zeitreihenanalyse | Time series analysis | Wirtschaftsindikator | Economic indicator |
| Description of contents: | Description [doi.org] |