Predicting real growth using the yield curve

A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.

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Year of publication:	1996
Authors:	Haubrich, Joseph G. ; Dombrosky, Ann M.
Published in:	Economic Review. - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. - 1996, Q I, p. 26-35
Publisher:	Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Subject:	Forecasting \| Interest rates

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Extent:	application/pdf
Type of publication:	Article
Language:	English
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

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