Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread

by Claudio Borio, Mathias Drehmann and Dora Xia

Year of publication:	2019
Authors:	Borio, Claudio E. V. ; Drehmann, Mathias ; Xia, Fan Dora
Publisher:	[Basel] : Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department
Subject:	financial cycle \| term spread \| recession risk \| panel probit model \| Konjunktur \| Business cycle \| Zinsstruktur \| Yield curve \| Finanzkrise \| Financial crisis \| Probit-Modell \| Probit model \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Frühindikator \| Leading indicator \| Schätzung \| Estimation \| Theorie \| Theory \| Panel \| Panel study \| Finanzmarkt \| Financial market \| Risikoprämie \| Risk premium

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