Preference Uncertainty, Preference Learning, and Paired Comparison Experiments

Results from paired comparison experiments suggest that as respondents progress through a sequence of binary choices they become more consistent, apparently fine-tuning their preferences. Consistency may be indicated by the variance of the estimated valuation distribution measured by the error term in the random utility model. A significant reduction in the variance is shown to be consistent with a model of preference uncertainty allowing for preference learning. Respondents become more adept at discriminating among items as they gain experience considering and comparing them, suggesting that methods allowing for such experience may obtain more well founded values.