Presidential election scenarios

Purpose – The aim is to demonstrate the necessity of a scenario approach to decision making where non‐experts are forced to choose between expert opinions about which they cannot possibly form their own expert opinion. Design/methodology/approach – This is an opinion column. Findings – The 2012 presidential election is almost sure to result in more of an austerity approach to the economy – and the level of that austerity may actually be greater under a re‐elected Obama than under a new President Romney. Practical implications – Decision makers and strategists should be prepared for more of an austerity approach to economic policy, no matter who is elected in November. Social implications – Few people are thinking through the actual implications of this election. A scenario analysis makes it fairly clear that the range of plausible policy outcomes is far narrower than is commonly believed. Originality – The article gives a possibly unique outlook on the 2012 presidential election.