Price Bubbles in Private Real Estate

In this paper, we study bubble episodes in the United Kingdom private real estate sectors (Retail, O ces, Industrial) over the period December 1986 to April 2022. We use the backward supremum augmented Dickey Fuller (BSADF) approach of Phillips et al. (2015a,b) to identify bubbles and we investigate how economic, nancial and real estate indicators are related to such explosiveness. Sector risk premia, consumer price index in ation and the composite leading indicator are linked to the explosiveness of prices across all sectors. The contribution of employment, rents and consumer con dence varies by sector