Principles of Forecasting : A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners

1. Introduction -- 2. Role Playing -- Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions -- 3. Intentions -- Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data -- 4. Expert Opinions -- Improving Judgment in Forecasting -- Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts -- Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation -- Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique -- 5. Conjoint Analysis -- Forecasting with Conjoint Analysis -- 6. Judgmental Bootstrapping -- Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts’ Rules for Forecasting -- 7. Analogies -- Forecasting Analogous Time Series -- 8. Extrapolation -- Extrapolation of Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data -- Neural Networks For Time-Series Forecasting -- 9. Rule-Based Forecasting -- Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation -- 10. Expert Systems -- Expert Systems for Forecasting -- 11. Econometric Methods -- Econometric Forecasting -- 12. Selecting Methods -- Selecting Forecasting Methods -- 13. Integrating, Adjusting, and Combining -- Judgmental Time-Series Forecasting Using Domain Knowledge -- Judgmental Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts -- Combining Forecasts -- 14. Evaluating Methods -- Evaluating Forecasting Methods -- 15. Assessing Uncertainly -- Prediction Intervals for Time-Series Forecasting -- Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting -- 16. Gaining Acceptance -- Scenarios and Acceptance of Forecasts -- 17. Monitoring Forecasts -- Learning from Experience: Coping with Hindsight Bias and Ambiguity -- 18. Applications of Principles -- Population Forecasting -- Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations: Implications for Time-Series Extrapolation -- Econometric Models for Forecasting Market Share -- Forecasting Trial Sales of New Consumer Packaged Goods -- 19. Diffusion of Principles -- Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Books -- Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Software -- 20. Summary -- Standards and Practices for Forecasting -- Forecasting Standards Checklist -- External Reviewers -- About the Authors -- The Forecasting Dictionary -- Author Index.