Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model, and whether they are well calibrated more generally. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters. Key words: probability distribution forecasts ; point forecasts ; Bayesian learning JEL classification: C53