Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

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Year of publication:	2014
Authors:	Clements, Michael P.
Published in:	International Journal of Forecasting. - Elsevier, ISSN 0169-2070. - Vol. 30.2014, 1, p. 99-117
Publisher:	Elsevier
Subject:	Subjective density forecasts \| First moments \| Bayesian learning

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Type of publication:	Article
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010730016