Probability Weighting and Input Use Intensity in a State-Contingent Framework

Climate risk represents an increasing threat to poor and vulnerable farmers in drought-prone areas of Africa. This study assesses the fertilizer adoption responses of food insecure farmers in Malawi, where Drought Tolerant (DT) maize was recently introduced. A field experiment, eliciting risk attitudes of farmers, is combined with a detailed farm household survey. A state-contingent production model with rank-dependent utility preferences is estimated. Over-weighting of small probabilities was associated with less use of fertilizer on all maize types and particularly so on the more risky improved maize types.