Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations

Krüger, Fabian/Pavlova, Lora

Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. These advantages are particularly relevant when analyzing large scale consumer surveys. We illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.

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Year of publication:	[2020]
Authors:	Krüger, Fabian ; Pavlova, Lora
Publisher:	Berlin : Humboldt-Universität
Subject:	Inflationserwartung \| Inflation expectations \| Verbraucher \| Consumers \| Risiko \| Risk \| Befragung \| Interview \| Deutschland \| Germany \| 2014-2019