Quantifying the Effects of Decoupling on Agriculture in Ireland’s NUTS 3 Regions

In this paper we adapt the CAPRI model to facilitate an analysis of CAP reform on agriculture in Ireland’s NUTS 3 regions. We make assumptions about how the Luxembourg Agreement will be implemented in the Member States and contrast the effects of this policy with that of the current policy Agenda 2000. The projection year is 2009. Comparisons are also made with the FAPRI model for Ireland as a whole. We find that with the fulldecoupling of premium payments in Ireland, regional agricultural income will be 3% higher, on average, in 2009 than under the current policy. We also find that the directional movements in incomes and activity levels tend to be the same as FAPRI’s predictions, but the outcomes using the CAPRI model tend to be a little less optimistic.