Quantifying the recent immigration surge : evidence from work-permit applications

The US unemployment rate has drifted higher since early 2023, even though growth in payroll employment has been strong over this period. Some commentators have noted that the puzzle of rising unemployment amid rapid hiring can be explained by a large increase in immigration, which would raise population growth and allow firms to hire large numbers of new (immigrant) workers without dipping into the unemployment pool. This paper uses a source of administrative data that is directly related to the labor market-immigrant applications for work permits-to estimate the immigrant labor inflow in 2023 and 2024. The surge in new work-permit applications in these two years supports the large immigration estimates based on other administrative data from the Department of Homeland Security, including the significant immigration increase recently estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.