Quantitative models for early prediction of software development success: a practitioner’s perspective

This study investigated some of the early non-technical components of the software development process from the perspective of project success. The causal relationships among these components, as well as their relationship to software practitionersâ overall perception of project success, were depicted through a Bayesian Belief Network. Components related to sponsor/management, customer/users and requirements management. Data was gathered through a survey of practitioners. This research is important because it provides graphic and quantitative findings of the â downstreamâ implications of the investigated components on the probability of project success. The studyâ s working definition of success reflects elements of software development that practitioners have indicated are important to them and, by extension, motivate them. Furthermore, motivation has been shown to have the single greatest impact on staff productivity, which has direct implications for the ability of organization to deliver software products on time, within budget and that meets customer/user requirements.The software industry continues to be plagued by projects that are characterized by cost overruns, excessive time to complete (if they get completed at all), poor reliability/quality and/or failure to meet agreed upon business objectives/requirements. The cause of most project failures has little to do with technological issues, despite the tendency among project managers to focus on the technical issues involved in software development. Further, there is a lack of quantitative research into the early, on-going and non-technical components of software development projects, specifically from the perspective of software practitioners.The proposed model provided quantitative evidence that agreement on requirements being reached between customer/users, a high level of customer/user participation, and users that make adequate time for requirements gathering had the three largest direct impacts on practitionersâ overall perception of project success. The chain of project components that had the largest impact on project success was having a sponsor throughout the project, users that make adequate time for requirements gathering, a high level of customer/user participation in the development process, and agreement on requirements between customer/users and the development team.