¿Que tan predecible es la política monetaria? Un análisis econométrico del contenido informativo de los comunicados del Banco de México

In this paper we investigate whether the communication bias of the Bank of Mexico provides information that helps to anticipate the course of monetary policy in subsequent periods. We first construct an objective index of the communication bias, based upon an statistical analysis of key terms and phrases stated in the monthly communications of Banxico. Then, we explore, using probit models, if the communication bias is related to the policy actions taken in subsequent periods, after controlling for inflation expectations and the output gap, as Taylor’s rule would suggest. We find that the communication strategy followed by the Bank of Mexico is effective only in the short run.