Radical change as gradual transformation: Characteristics and variants of socio-technical transitions

Processes of socio-technical change that are triggered by new technological opportunities do not occur as radical fractures over short periods of time, subsequently leading to new periods of technological, institutional and organizational continuity. What appears - after ten, twenty, or thirty years - to be radical socio-technical change is in fact the result of longer search and restructuring processes, which are influenced by a number of related technological and socio-economic changes. Once these changes accumulate, they then lead to substantial adjustments within the technological, institutional and (inter-) organizational foundations of a society, the economy, or within a sector. How can an analysis of such processes of radical as well as gradual change be performed? What mechanisms are involved in their occurrence, which patterns do they follow and what variations do they assume? Against the background of technology-induced change within economic sectors, this paper develops a concept of gradual socio-technical transformation. 'Transformation' means: change resulting in the radical realignment of a field, by which both its technological profile and the connected social coordinates are significantly modified. 'Gradual', on the other hand, emphasizes the fundamental procedural peculiarity of such changes, which essentially occur by degrees as an accumulation of numerous transformationrelated impulses extending over a longer period of time. The concept provides concrete tools for analyzing and classifying exceptional periods of substantial socio-technical change.