Random Walk Components in Output and Exchange Rates: Some Robust Tests on UK Data.

This paper uses robust tests for unit roots to determine whether U.K. output and exchange rate data contain random walk components. It finds that, as for the United States, there is no evidence to reject a unit root in output for post-World War II data, but there is evidence to suggest that the hypothesis can be rejected for the pre-World War I era. Evidence is also presented in support of the random walk behavior of spot exchange rates, based on analyzing data sampled at hour intervals around known news events, such as the Louvre Accourd and the 1987 general election. Copyright 1989 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research