Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies

Online-Ressource (XVIII, 307 p. 49 illus., 22 illus. in color, digital)

Complex Networks and Dynamic Systems ; 1

Description based upon print version of record

Recent Developmentsin Foresight Methodologies; About the Authors; Acknowledgements; Contents; Part I: Introduction; Chapter 1: In Search of Foresight Methodologies: Riddle or Necessity; References; Part II: Theorizing About Foresight Methodologies; Chapter 2: Defining the Future: Concepts and Definitions as Linguistic Fundamentals of Foresight; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Concepts, Vocabulary and De fi nitions; 2.3 Futures Dictionaries, Glossaries and Encyclopaedias; 2.4 De fi ning De fi nitions; 2.5 Two or Three Attempts to Get Concepts and De fi nitions Right; 2.6 Conclusion; References

Chapter 3: Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies3.1 Theoretical Background of Foresight Methodol o gies; 3.1.1 Material; 3.2 Ontological and Epistemological Assumptions; 3.3 So, What Is Foresight Methodology?; 3.4 The Conception of 'Time' in Foresight; 3.5 Some Classi fi cation Schemes of Foresight Methods; 3.6 What Have We Learned So Far?; 3.7 An Alternative Meta-classification; 3.8 Discussion; 3.9 Conclusion; Appendix A; A.1 Tools/Approaches: Towards a Classi fi cation; A.2 Qualitative/Quantitative; A.3 Mobilization; A.4 Scope; A.5 Complexity: Input

A.6 Complexity: ProcessA.7 Complexity: Output; Appendix B; Table B1 Tools and approaches assessed by the experts; References; Chapter 4: Bridging Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Foresight; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Explanation and Prediction; 4.3 The Role of Quantitative Modelling in Foresight; 4.4 Approaches to Foresight; 4.5 Qualitative Versus Quantitative Methods; 4.6 Integration of Qualitative and Quantitative Methods; 4.7 Conclusions; References; Chapter 5: New Emerging Issues and Wild Cards as Future Shakers and Shapers; 5.1 Introduction: The Unpredictable Aspects of the Future

5.2 (Potential) New Emerging Issues and Wild Cards5.3 What Are Wild Cards Exactly?; Box 5.1 De fi nition of Trends and Hypes; 5.4 Wild Cards That Happened and That Could Happen; 5.4.1 The Tension Growth Narrative; 5.4.2 The Incident and Accident Narrative; 5.4.3 The Real Black Swans; 5.5 Nature and Human Causes; 5.6 Imaginative and Imaginary Wild Cards as 'Instruments' to Shape and Shake the Future; 5.7 Why to Look for Wild Cards; Box 5.2 Can Steps Be Taken to Anticipate Wild Cards?; Box 5.3 Foresight Solutions for Wild Card Effects; 5.8 How and Where to Look for Wild Cards

Box 5.4 Origins of Wild Cards5.9 Assessment; 5.10 Strength of a Wild Card/Issue: The Final Test Discourse/Decision Making; Box 5.5 The Discourse on the Future; 5.11 Early Warning Signals; 5.12 Physical Signals; 5.13 Societal Signals; 5.14 Concluding Remarks; References; Websites; Part III: System Content Issues; Chapter 6: Forms of Reasoning in Pattern Management and in Strategic Intelligence; 6.1 Introduction; 6.1.1 Sense-Making in Pattern Management; 6.2 The Main Categories of Pattern Management; 6.2.1 Empirical Calculation; 6.2.2 Synthesising Empirical and Rational Data

6.2.3 Theory Proving with Observations

In Search of Foresight Methodologies: Riddle or Necessity -- Defining the Future: Concepts and Definitions as Linguistic Fundamentals of Foresight -- Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies -- Classification of Tools and Approaches Applicable in Foresight Studies -- Bridging Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Foresight -- The Meaning of Wild Cards and High Impact Issues as Future Shapers and Shakers. Forms of Reasoning in Pattern Management and in Strategic Intelligence -- Micro-meso-macro: From the Heritage of the Oracle to Foresight -- From Narrative to Number: A role for Quantitative Models in Scenario Analysis -- Foresight at a Contract Research Organization: Linking Stakeholders and Methods in Participatory Processes -- Will Entrepreneurship, Knowledge Management and Foresight Emerge in a System? -- Scenario Transfer Methodology and Technology -- Willingness of Stakeholders to Use Models for Climate Policy: The Delft Process -- Linking Narrative Storylines and Quantitative Models to Combat Desertification in the Guadalentin, Spain -- Scenario Planning as a Tool in Foresight Exercises: The LIPSOR Approach -- Foresights, Scenarios and Sustainable Development: A Pluriformity Perspective -- Methodological Challenges in Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Foresight Methods for Sustainable Energy Futures - The SEPIA Project -- Building Strategic Policy Scenarios for the EU Agriculture - The AG2020 Project -- Opportunities for Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches in Scenario-Building - The "Estonia 2010" Project.

10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7 [DOI]

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