Rethinking the Value of Initial Claims as a Forecasting Tool

The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal about employment during recessions but not during expansions

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Year of publication:	2007
Authors:	McConnell, Margaret Mary
Publisher:	[S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Arbeitsmarktprognose \| Employment forecast \| Arbeitslosenversicherung \| Unemployment insurance

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (6 p)
Series:	Current Issues in Economics and Finance ; Vol. 4, No. 11, November 1998
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments November 1998 erstellt
Other identifiers:	10.2139/ssrn.997056 [DOI]
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E17 - Forecasting and Simulation ; E24 - Employment; Unemployment; Wages
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014049303