Revisiting the spatial cycle : intra-regional development patterns and future population dynamics in metropolitan Athens, Greece

Being intertwined with economic development, urbanization determines the present and future development path of regions and countries. The intimate relationship between urban expansion and economic development is of particular interest in the case of large regions with complex (and mostly non-linear) socio-demographic dynamics and a relevant primacy in the metropolitan system of a given country. Typical examples of advanced economies with settlement systems characterized by a high degree of city primacy are peripheral and disadvantaged European countries such as Portugal and Greece. For instance, the administrative region of Attica-centered on Athens, the Greek capital city-represents the largest metropolitan area of the country, hosting almost 3.8 million inhabitants in 2021 (36.2% of the Greek population). In this context, this study investigates the internal redistribution of the resident population in metropolitan Athens and the progressive development of satellite cities over a relatively longtime interval, testing the assumptions of the Spatial Cycle Theory (SCT) between 1951 and 2021 and predicting future development paths up to 2051. To investigate past, present, and future intra-regional population trends, we used data released from decadal (1951-2021) censuses and demographic forecasts for the years 2031, 2041, and 2051. Being in line with the SCT, the empirical results of our study document how demographic dynamics of individual centers influence largely-and independently-the long-term development of metropolitan regions, both with policy/planning regulation and in conditions of non-intervention (spontaneous urban growth).