RISK ANALYSIS OF ADOPTING ZERO RUNOFF SUBIRRIGATION SYSTEMS IN GREENHOUSE OPERATIONS: A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION APPROACH

Zero runoff subirrigation (ZRS) technology can effectively manage fertilizer input while improving greenhouse production efficiency. However, high capital investment costs and inadequate technical information to growers are impediments for adoption. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to compare the profitability and risks of alternative ZRS system investments for greenhouse operations in the northeastern and north central United States. Results showed that the Dutch movable tray system and the flood floor system were most profitable and least risky for small potted plant and bedding crop flat production, respectively. The trough bench system was least favorable because its profitability was low and highly volatile.