Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty

Introduction -- PRM and types of project uncertainties -- Overview of DMDU methodologies -- Project complexity concept -- Decision-making framework -- Selection of project options in situations of deep uncertainty -- Development of project schedule and cost contingencies in complex projects -- Cost escalation and exchange-rate volatility risk assessment methods -- High-level overview of simplistic Monte Carlo and parametric risk assessment methods -- Case study 1: applications of a tradition PRM (scoring method) -- Case study 2: applications of “linear Monte Carlo” methodology -- Case study 3: applications of “non-linear Monte Carlo” methodology -- Case study 4: selection of project options (a few “futures”) -- Case study 5: selection of project options (multiple “futures”) -- Case study 6: applications of cost escalation and exchange-rate volatility modelling methods -- Conclusion.