ROBUSTNESS OF ART PRICE INDICES AND PRICE DYNAMICS IN THE PRINT MARKET

This paper focuses on the theoretical differences of four index methods to predict price fluctuations in the picture market: (a) the relation of the arithmetic mean of picture prices of two periods; (b) the relation of the geometric means of picture prices of two periods; (c) the arithmetic mean of the rates of return on paintings; and (d) the repeat-sale-regression method. The empirical test applied to a sample of repeat sales of modern prints auctioned in Germany and Switzerland between 1992 and 2004 shows how the theoretical characteristics of the price indices translate to different predictions of art price fluctuations. The theoretical and empirical evidence thus allows an evaluation of the appropriateness of each method to estimate the price variations and the rates of return in the print market.