Scenario analysis of carbon emission trajectory on energy system transition model : a case study of Sichuan Province

Energy transition targets and pathway planning are more important since the declare of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China. Energy transition is highly relevant with economic and social development, as well as industrial transformation and technological innovation. However, existing studies have rarely conducted energy transition and CO2 emissions analysis from the macro targets of economic development and climate change as well as micro pathway of different sectors. In this study, we propose an energy transition framework to present an energy transition mechanism driven by various impact factors. First, a sectional energy consumption module is presented to analyse energy consumption transition linking economic development, technology progress, and low-carbon policy effect. Then, the energy conversion and supply module is proposed, tracing back energy flows from demand to supply to provide an overview of the energy transition. Subsequently, empirical scenario analysis of Sichuan Province is conducted, followed by whole perspective and targets of energy transition as well as CO2 emission mitigation trajectory. The results indicate that: (1) Sichuan's Carbon peak and carbon neutrality will be achieved in 2028 and 2058 under the Energy Transition Scenario; (2) Clean electrification transition would result in an insufficient renewable power supply for outer-region demand from 2030 to 2050, and Sichuan Province would not be able to meet its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals if natural gas is added to generate more electricity to ensure the export volume; (3) Energy efficiency improvement, energy mix optimization and the increase of penetration of renewable power can reduce CO2 emission by 13.3 Mt, 87.8 Mt, and 5.4 Mt in 2050 in Energy Transition Scenario. The model extends the modelling methodology of energy-economy-environment system and provides an effective scenario analysis and path selection tool, which can provide a scientific and quantitative reference basis for policy makers in the context of energy regulation and energy network governance and can be applied to the study of energy transition paths in other regions.