Scenario Analysis of New Zealand’s Sheep Meat and Beef Sector Over The Next 10 To 15 Years

This paper identifies and synthesises strategic opportunities and challenges facing New Zealand’s sheep meat and beef sector over the next 10 to 15 years. A Delphi survey draws on the sector’s collective knowledge and identifies areas of consensus and divergence of opinion. Using the results of this survey, as well as looking at other key industry features and mega-trends affecting the sector, four scenarios are developed that portray various possible futures where the industry has adapted or failed to adapt to the challenges and opportunities it is presented with. While the paper concludes that there is a generally positive outlook for the sector it notes that carrying on as normal is unlikely to provide the desired outcomes identified by the sector.