Scenario analysis of pollutants loads to European regional seas for the year 2020 : Part II: Assessment of priority chemicals - an example with three pilot substances

In order to support the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, DG Environment and the Joint Research Centre joined to carry out a study on the expected cumulative impact of existing EU environmental legislation on the quality of the marine environment, with specific reference to the case of aquatic discharges to the European seas. The report describes a few scenario analyses affecting emissions to the European regional seas up to 2020 for Lindane, Trifluralin and Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) taken as pilot substances. The scenarios developed are agreed with stakeholders at DG ENV following some preparatory meetings. The scenarios do not intend be exhaustive, but examples of what can be further achieved making use of the modelling and database development made in the different phases of the project. For Lindane, the model estimated European sea load of 745 tons per 1995, based on the official emission data provided by EMEP, appears to be reduced by 98.3% in 2005, ten years after the start of the EU regulations for γ-HCH. Besides, under the BAU scenario, a Lindane sea load of ca.12.5 tons per year should be expected. The trend and ban scenarios support, respectively, a reduction of the load to the European seas in 2020 by 74% and 95% when compared to the BAU estimate. Aimed at Trifluralin, according to the BAU scenario, an annual load of ca.61.7 tones is estimated in 2020. However, this is an overestimation of sea load, because the aggregated emission data of EUROSTAT for the agriculture use of the entire group of dinitroaniline herbicides in for EU25 have been considered as model input data. The ban scenario forecasts ca. 0.07 t/y and in practice eliminates the concern about loads of Trifluralin to European seas to a negligible level due to degradation in soil. Considering PFOS under BAU scenario conditions the total sea load from all European countries is estimated to be 5.8 tons per year. The model forecasts approximately a half of this amount when a 50% reduction of emissions takes place.