Scenario-based forecasting on commercial potential of SDHWS

Purpose The purpose of this study is to show how scenario-based forecasting can give a better understanding of future commercial potential of a newly developed technology. This study aims to bridge the existing gaps in technology commercialization process for various projects supported under innovation support schemes in India. Design/methodology/approach The scope of this study is to understand the commercial potential and future deployment prospect of “sun direct hot water system (SDHWS)”. Scenarios have been drawn using “cone of plausibility” method and the commercial potential forecasted under different scenarios using arithmetic and linear regression forecasting tool. Findings The SDHWS is an incremental innovation but has great potential to overcome major constraints and barriers associated with existing solar water heater (SWH) technologies. Among the three scenarios drawn, plausible scenario is most likely to happen in future. The SDHWS is technically and economically capable of replacing existing conventional systems of SWHs. Research limitations/implications The study is limited to developing alternate qualitative scenarios and, further, an attempt to quantify the commercial potential. Various assumptions have been taken because of non-availability of past data on SDHWS technology. Originality/value Scenario-based forecasting to understand commercial potential for innovative technology is a new approach. The adoption of such insight and analysis would brighten the chance of SDHWS technology to reach the market.