Scenario Forecast of the Main Parameters of Macroeconomic Development and the Budget Sphere of Russia for 2020–2022

Development of Russian and world economies in Q2 2020 demonstrates that despite economic collapse countries are adapting to the current situation and in case there is no second wave of pandemic the crisis will take a V-type form. In particular, the oil price is unlikely to drop below $35 per barrel and the recovery of the world economy up to the pre-crises level is expected by the end of 2022. Forecast for the Russian economy has been improving too, decrease of GDP will not exceed 6.5-7.0% in 2020, this being said, common for the Russian economy risks, major weakening of the ruble and inflation outburst are out of picture. The enlarged government budget deficit can hit 7% of GDP in 2020, however, taking into account balance brought forward on the budget accounts which can be financed, in our view, by borrowings on the ruble market of public debt without the risk to Russia's debt sustainability. In 2021, the high budget deficit will remain (no less than 5,0% of GDP), however, the debt capacity of the Russian market allows to attract the required funds to the budget. In 2021-2022, we expect the recovery of the investment activity, real income of the population, and consumer demand. Nevertheless, by the end of 2022, Russian economy will not reach the 2019 level regarding GDP, and in order to speed it up it is necessary to create conditions for further stepping up investments above the 2014-2019 levels as well as for easing budget policy within available options