Scientific and Methodical Foundations of Building up a System of Dynamic Analysis of Uncertainties and Risks of the Gas-and-Petroleum Producing Projects and Support of Making Decisions on their Realisation

The article considers main principles of building up an information system of support of making decisions on the process of exploring and development of petroleum and natural gas deposits. It offers a system that is based on an inter-disciplinary analysis of data and operative assessment of new information that is received in the course of projects realisation from the point of view of its impact on the range of changes of uncertainties of the gas-and-petroleum producing projects and existing levels of risk. Specific feature of the proposed system lies in application of methods of stochastic modelling of uncertainties of parameters of a project and project-connected risks and their quality assessment. Probabilistic modelling and dynamic analysis of uncertainties allow optimisation of managerial decisions with consideration of interconnection of possible risks and technical and economic parameters of projects. The article offers algorithms of identification and analysis of risks, development and making the decisions based on the dynamic analysis of data, probabilistic modelling of uncertainties and risks connected with them. It considers main tasks of scientific studies on improvement of the proposed dynamic system of support of decision making in geological survey and gas-and-petroleum producing branches of production and also methods of their realisation.