Scoping study on modelling of EU environment policy : final report

This study provides an overview of modelling activities in the context of EU environment policy and identifies opportunities for improved modelling of environmental policies. Modelling can be structured around the three thematic priorities of the 7th EAP (natural capital; resource efficient, low carbon economy; and human health and wellbeing) along with the horizontal priority objectives (sustainable urban planning and design; and global challenges). Modelling can provide input for all the EU's evaluation criteria : effectiveness, efficiency, relevance, coherence and EU value added. A clear policy need will be for integrated economic, social and environmental analysis. There are modelling gaps in: sustainable production and consumption, material flows and resource efficiency, urban environmental policy modelling, resilience and adaptation. Linked to this, there are general challenges in terms of data and models often focus on the present ecosystem and socio-economic system rather than behavioural change. Agent based modelling can address behavioural change and show the issues with risks. A two year modelling assessment could have as a priority the combined assessment of environmental policy, its social implications and its contribution to the Juncker priority on jobs, growth and investment though eco-innovation.