SEARCHING FOR THE BEST FITTING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FOR INNOVATIVE GROWTH ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF RICE PRODUCTION IN BANGLADESH

The study tried to find out appropriate models using seven contemporary model selection criteria that could best describe the growth pattern of rice production in Bangladesh and in its foil regions (former divisions) Chittagong, Dhaka. Khulna and Rajshahi during the time period 1973/74 to 2000/01. It appeared from the study that the best fitting model for rice production in the whole country and in Dhaka was the cubic model. For Chittagong the quadratic model was the best. It means that the assumption of constant annual rate of growth in percent that lies behind the use of exponential/compound model, which was very common to use in describing growth pattern, was not true for the growth pattern of rice production in the country as a whole and also in its two regions Dhaka and Chittagong. In other words, in these regions and in the country as a whole the growth rates were different over different time points. The variation of the growth rate in the country as a whole was 1.38 to 5.76 percent, in Dhaka -1.09 to 13.01 percent and in Chittagong 0.92 to 2.06 percent during the study period. In Khulna and Rajshahi regions the exponential/compound model seemed to be appropriate. The rice production in Khulna grew at the constant rate of 2.6 percent, on the average, per year and in Rajshahi at the rate of 3.3 percent throughout the study period. Five-year forecasts were also made for each of the four regions and for the country as a whole using the best fitted models.