Sequential Adoption of Package Technologies: The Dynamics of Stacked Trait Corn Adoption

Genetically modified corn seed companies have recently created stacked varieties which combine more than one trait. This work develops a Bayesian model that demonstrates how uncertainty with a package technology can lead to an adoption pattern in which farmers move from single trait to stacked varieties. We then develop a semi-parametric panel data estimation to measure the effects of experience on the adoption of stacked varieties. The results underscore the importance of early experience in the subsequent adoption of stacked varieties. There is also evidence that farmers with more human capital learn faster and that, as time evolves, the importance of early experience decreases. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.