Short- and long-run causality between remittances and economic growth in MENA countries : a panel ARDL approach

This paper assesses the impact of remittances on economic growth for a selected sample of MENA countries over the 1987-2018 period. Using an ARDL model, we investigate the short- and long-run effects of remittances and the channels through which they may impact growth. Estimation outcomes show that while remittances contribute to promote growth on the long run, they may impede growth on the short run, as an important time lapses is required for the growth-generating transmission channels to produce the expected positive effects. Our findings show that besides remittances, investment and human capital contribute to promote long-run growth while the credit to GDP ratio fails to produce any significant effect on growth because of the limited access to the financial system in MENA countries. We also note that the short-run dynamics and the speed of adjustment toward the long-run path vary considerably from one country to another. Finally, the causality tests confirm that investment, human capital, and financial development are the main channels through which remittances may produce their long-term positive effect on growth. Based on these results, we provide numerous policy recommendations for the MENA countries.