Short-Run Relations between the Real Sector and Inflation

Hard currency policy in Austria was striving for monetary stability and low inflation rates. At the same time, full employment was a dominant goal of economic policy which may be viewed as inconsistent with a negative Phillips curve relationship between inflation and unemployment. Causality tests suggest that for Austria the short-term relation between the real sector and inflation could be modelled as an "inverse Phillips curve": It explains real sector developments as a function of the inflation rate (which in turn is determined by monetary policy). Empirical estimates indicate that unanticipated inflation with some delay stimulates the real sector, while anticipated inflation tends to dampen real sector developments. This may be attributed to social partnership with its implicit understanding to adjust wages and prices to the hard currency policy and to reap the advantages of improving the competitive position vis-à-vis other countries