Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Development in Latvia Using Business and Consumer Survey Data

At any stage of an economic cycle, policy makers and production managers are to make decisions how to benefit from an economic upswing most, or how to mitigate the adverse effects of an economic downturn. An early evaluation of economic development trends in a country will lead to a more favourable translation of policy decisions into economic processes at both microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. An assessment of economic business cycles often involves business and consumer survey results as evidenced, for instance, by rich practices of the EU and other world countries. This paper examines the usefulness of indicators from business and consumer surveys in the short-term forecasting of Latvia's economic development.