Simulating spatial market share patterns for impacts analysis of large-scale shopping centers on downtown revitalization

The decline of the downtown has been observed in many cities across the world. In response, many small cities in Japan, for example, have been making regeneration efforts including development controls on large-scale shopping centers. It is extremely useful to analyze the potential effects of relevant planning policies before implementation. We developed an urban planning support tool, a multiagent simulation (MAS) model called Shopsim-MAS, to investigate the impacts of some downtown revitalization policies through consequent spatial dynamics of shop market shares. We discuss methods to model household behavior and to understand the market area dynamics of shops. The Shopsim-MAS model developed in this project has proven to be a useful means to analyze the impact of downtown revitalization policies in Japan. It is also expected to be further expanded for impact analysis of similar or more sophisticated urban policies in other parts of the world.