Simulating the macroeconomic effects of ECB tapering

Although macroeconomic effects of asset purchases are intensively discussed, the literature addressing "tapering" is rather thin. Using a broad definition of tapering the study considers three tapering scenarios within a Dynamic Stochastic Equilibrium Model: A reduction of net purchases in the expansionary stage, the announcements of an earlier exit, and a faster than expected exit. In all three cases the effects on long-term yields are positive and negative on output growth and inflation. Quantitatively, the effects are rather modest, however.