Simulation of EU policies and evaluation of their territorial impacts : urban development and accessibility indicators: methods and preliminary results. An application of the reference scenario in the LUISA platform - updated configuration 2014

The European Union is committed, through the Cohesion Policy, to contribute to a sustainable economic, social and territorial cohesion by reducing disparities between the levels of development of regions and countries of its member states. The EU's main investment policy is also responsible for mainstreaming the environment into its programmes and projects. The Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment Platform (LUISA) was parameterized according to a 'Reference Scenario 2014' to assess the spatial impact of regional and urban policy in Europe. In order to show the impacts of EU policies included in the Reference Scenario, a set of indicators were computed to measure [1] land use intensity and the urban sprawl and [2] the implication of this policy on accessibility in the EU regions. The modelling results indicated that in spite of important regional differences, the overall land use intensity will decline. The Reference Scenario also shows a general increase in urban sprawl across Europe most significantly in the main EU capital cities.