Small fiscal multipliers do not justify austerity: a macroeconomic accounting analysis of public debt-to-gdp dynamics

In the aftermath of a crisis which has now been lasting for more than five years, the debate about the size of fiscal multipliers arouse. Whatever the estimation approach, fiscal multipliers assumed for projections are the result of extrapolations from time series data. The present contribution aims at taking a different perspective, by answering the following question: is it really necessary to know the value of fiscal multipliers to take sensible policy decisions?