Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS

TOPALS is a relational model that can be used for smoothing and projecting age-specific rates or probabilities. TOPALS uses a linear spline to model the ratios between the age-specific rates or probabilities to be fitted or projected and a smooth standard age schedule. TOPALS is easy and flexible. The method does not require complex calculations and the interpretation of the parameters is straightforward. TOPALS can smooth and project different types of age schedules. De Beer (2011) demonstrates how TOPALS can be used to smooth and project age-specific fertility rates. This paper demonstrates how TOPALS can be used to smooth and project age-specific probabilities of death for 26 European countries.