Socio-Economic Factors Influencing COVID-19 Spread in Japan; Virus Importation and Domestic Transmission during the First Two Waves

The failure to prevent the international diffusion of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 results in a major exogenous shock. Social scientists should not limit themselves to estimating the economic impact and proposing mitigating measures. It is also critical to better assess the social and economic profiles of the populations the most at risk of acting as vectors of virus importation or the most exposed to domestic transmission. The low prevalence observed in Japan in the first half of 2020, due to limited local transmission, enables a quantitative investigation of socio-economic factors influencing the spread using municipality-level and prefecture-level data. Space congestion, international mobility, and occupational exposure are identified as expected, along with a strong income effect. Policy implications that appear also relevant for other countries are considered