Sour Grapes in the Lab and Field : A Test of Access-Based Beliefs

Standard economic theory holds that beliefs about an alternative’s value are independent of the probability of it being in the choice set. Using data from two lab experiments (conducted in the US and India) and one field experiment (conducted in the US), I find consistent evidence that agents have systematically lower beliefs of the value of alternatives that they have a low probability of accessing. Such access-based beliefs are at odds with prominent models of decision under uncertainty, but are compatible with models of motivated cognition. Additionally, the effects appear larger for poorer individuals, suggesting that access-based beliefs may partially explain low levels of investment amongst the poor