Source-to-site distance distributions for area type of seismic sources used in PSHA applications

The use of recent ground motion prediction equations in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with area type of seismic sources requires defining the probability distributions of various source-to-site distance metrics with finite fault rupture taken into account. This task is rendered very difficult due to large epistemic uncertainties involved in specifying the details of the causative faults for area sources of diffused seismicity. However, it may generally be possible to constrain the strike and dip angles for fault ruptures in area sources from regional seismotectonic and geological information. This paper proposes to estimate the various finite fault distance measures from a site to a location in an area source by averaging the distances for several fault rupture scenarios with randomly distributed strike and dip over specified ranges. To consider the spatial distribution of the seismicity, the paper then provides the guidelines for defining the distance distributions by assigning suitable weight factors to the distance estimates for a grid of locations in the source area. The PSHA computation based on the distance distributions thus defined is shown to provide quite realistic and objective estimate of the hazard. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013