Spatial Clustering of Fertility Decline in India

India's fertility is declining and at present the country is experiencing significant demographic transition. The fertility pattern at the district level shows robust spatial clustering of low fertility values and its spatial propagation with time. While the role of the socio-economic characteristics in explaining fertility variations have been analysed in details, limited attention has been given to understand the role of space behind the rapid change in reproductive behavior. The present paper, thus, tries to highlight the importance of spatial factors in describing fertility transition in India. Employing geo – statistical tools the paper brings out the regionality in fertility pattern and also points out the contours of fertility decline in India. To judge the role of space in fertility transition, the study employs a comparative framework considering the structural factors along with the spatial factors. The result of an error analysis endorses that fertility diffusion seems to be well entrenched in Indian population though the nature of the diffusion may be anisotropic, resulting in striking regional patterning in fertility decline which is supposed to be associated with cultural factors, land inheritance system, cropping patterns, historical influences and socio-political institutions. Our findings taken together, indicates that space plays a crucial role in Indian fertility transition points to believe that individuals' location in the broad spectrum of individual, society, nation is more important rather than individual capacity building factors in order to describe the ongoing fertility transition in the country