Spies Ð A Simple Method for Improving Forecasts?

In this Hot New research column, Goodwin cites a recent blog of Uriel Haran and Don Moore of Ben-Gurion University, who Òpresent a simple method that aims to improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts involving probability distributions.Ó The authors call their method SPIES: Subjective Probability Interval Estimates. Goodwin goes on to explain their system, comment on its reliability, and give advice about using it. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014